Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
